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U.S. Dollar: Red Pill Sanctuary

John Rowland

Posted on June 15, 2019 12:17

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Communism kills. As China kills the economic powerhouse that is/was Hong Kong, the U.S. dollar becomes a refuge of relative safety.

The communist Bolsheviks murdered tens of millions of mostly Christians in the first half of the last century. Mao's communist China also snuffed out tens of millions of lives in the 1900s. Communist atrocities occurred in places like Spain, Korea, Cambodia, and several eastern European and African countries as well.

With that context as the backdrop, in a recent interview with Raoul Pal, co-founder of Realvision, Kyle Bass (CIO of Hayman Capital) emphasized the developing problems of human and capital flight out of Hong Kong. While citing the "macroeconomic instability of Hong Kong," Bass understands that Hong Kong is supposed to be under UK rule of law, treated as its own sovereign entity where tariff-free trade flourishes, but this seems to be only "in theory."

Full of personal anecdotal stories, Bass relates how over the past few years some Chinese art buyers have been unable to participate in high-end art auctions overseas: they "can't get their money out" of China. Accordingly, China has floated (and temporarily suspended) a proposal to extradite virtually anyone on Hong Kong territory for political reasons or minor business transgressions . . . all without due process. No court/judicial review exising; the presumption is guilt. Mao would be so proud.

Hong Kong being the "most levered economy" in the world with the "most levered consumers" in the world and the "most expensive real estate" in the world, the Hayman CIO believes that the current situation superficially presenting itself as political in nature will ultimately play itself out in the currency markets, as it has already begun to do. He advises those stakeholders still caught up in the "political" mess to convert their currencies and assets into dollars, further strengthening U.S. currency in the process.

Many of Hong Kong's spooked moneyed elite have already left the country and taken their assets with them.  Additionally at risk are some 85,000 Americans who currently reside in Hong Kong, an issue over which U.S. House Speaker Pelosi recently expressed a "deep concern."

With respect to the U.S., Bass believes that the trade issue is a relatively small element of its economic relationship with China; more significant are "forced technology transfers, intellectual property theft and subversive industrial policies . . . [the way the Chinese] lie, cheat, and steal their way through our economy." Over the last decade, he assigns the value of stolen US intellectual property by China at $2-$3 trillion. Moreover, on the currency manipulation side of the ledger, Kyle notes that since 2001, China has printed $30 trillion - a staggering sum. Thus, we have the Red Ponzi.

Seemingly taking a cue from Hong Kong's financial aristocracy, the broader population have become similarly red-pilled and are beginning to fully realize the true and disturbing nature of the threat posed by the red authoritarians in Beijing: the Chinese Communist Party.

John Rowland

Posted on June 15, 2019 12:17

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Source: WSJ

The yuan's offshore and onshore rates converged Tuesday, closing a gap between the two that has been a headache for Beijing.

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