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Trump Is Trailing Big Four Months Ahead of Election

Erik Sofranko

Posted on June 30, 2020 00:23

2 users

Recent polling, especially from Fox News, has indicated that Trump has a lot of work to do if he wants to beat Joe Biden in November.

A recent national poll released by Fox News shows the president trailing presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by 12 points. As to be expected by Trump, he fired back at the network for releasing what he called "phony numbers."

If these national numbers continue to widen, it is virtually impossible for Trump to walk away with an electoral college victory. Trump lost the popular vote to Clinton four years ago, but the margin was about three percentage points, which is close enough to be able to pull off an electoral victory. With a double-digit deficit, however, the math simply does not work.

Fox News also recently released new battleground state polls, which are even worse news for Trump. He trails Biden in the traditionally conservative states of Arizona, Texas and Georgia. Trump obviously cannot win if he cannot hang onto states that should be easy victories. He has lost ground with every voting demographic, especially suburban women, who turned out to be a key difference-maker in his electoral victory four years ago.

One of the president's main problems throughout his candidacy and his entire presidency is his inability to stay on message. He is too easily distracted by his futile feuds with the media to keep the winning message that propelled him to victory in 2016. Polls have proven that his Twitter outbursts have hurt his standing with independent voters and suburban women who are looking for a true leader. Trump polls remarkably well in rural areas and terribly in urban areas. Therefore, the suburbs will determine the winner of this year's election just like most presidential elections.

There is still hope for Trump to win re-election if he can turn the race around, which usually happens after the party conventions and presidential debates.

FiveThirtyEight pollster Nate Silver went on ABC's "This Week" and insisted that Trump can absolutely win the election despite his significant drop in support. Silver is the pollster who correctly predicted Barack Obama's 2012 re-election victory against Mitt Romney, with his prediction of a 332-206 electoral college landslide coming true. In 2016, he was also correct when he said that Hillary Clinton's large lead in national polling was meaningless unless she could hold onto the vulnerable Democratic blue wall in the Midwest, which she failed to do. Nate Silver has built a reputation as being a voice of reason in the polling industry who can realistically lay out scenarios that how candidates from both sides can win.

Even though he stressed that Trump can absolutely win, he also said that he definitely has his work cut out for him. If Trump loses electoral college ground in the blue midwestern states that he flipped in 2016, he absolutely cannot afford any of the red-leaning states that carried, such as Arizona, Texas, North Carolina and Florida, all of which he is currently trailing.

Erik Sofranko

Posted on June 30, 2020 00:23

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Source: Mediaite
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