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Red Wave Regains Momentum

Erik Sofranko

Posted on October 4, 2022 01:04

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When the country’s focus is on the economy and crime, Republicans rise in the polls.

Republicans are surging in the House, Senate, and Governor polls in all the key states heading into the midterm elections. The forecasted Red Wave is regaining its momentum in the polls due to a shift in the national narrative that is favorable for the GOP. The narrative is returning to what the midterms should be about: a referendum on President Joe Biden. 

The top issues on the minds of voters are the economy and crime. The Republicans have a clear advantage over the Democrats here. The Democrats are mostly running on abortion and climate change, which are issues that rank extremely low on the list of priorities for likely voters in this election cycle. Democrats hope that they can motivate enough of the progressive base to get out and vote by catering to their campaign demands. 

However, the Republicans are clearly winning with not only conservatives but also moderate voters, who represent the plurality of the electorate. About 30 percent of Americans identify as liberals, while about 30 percent identify as conservatives. The remaining 40 percent are moderates who determine mo election outcomes.

Recent polling data for key races have all shifted in favor of the GOP. The Republicans are now clearly favored to retake the House of Representatives and are now slightly favored to retake the Senate. They are also on track to pick up governor seats.

Republicans are now favored to pick up governorships in Nevada, Oregon, and Wisconsin and hold control of other key states such as Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas.

On the Senate side, Republican Adam Laxalt is the favorite in Nevada, Republican Hershel Walker is the favorite in Georgia, and Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz is quickly surging in Pennsylvania. Victory in those three states would guarantee a Republican Senate majority.

It is not only the polls that are moving in favor of the GOP but also the betting markets as more betters are placing their money on Republicans. The momentum that the Democrats had after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade is gone. 

Biden has not been successful on keeping the national narrative hyper-focused on abortion and climate change in the way that Democrats need to in order to do well. The headlines have been focused on the continued economic uncertainty and the crime wave.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has admitted that aggressive interest rate hikes are needed to slow inflation, which means economic pain is expected to continue. Every time there is a devastating inflation report or a sharp decline in the stock market, the Democrats’ midterm chances fade even more. There will be more inflation data, jobs reports, consumer confidence polls, and corporate earnings reports before November 8th. 

The Republicans can maintain their momentum by continuing to focus on the economy and crime and ignoring Donald Trump’s distractions. 

 

Erik Sofranko

Posted on October 4, 2022 01:04

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