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Factors that Are Shaping Trump's Reelection Chances

Robert Dimuro

Posted on June 7, 2020 17:30

6 users

Based on all the variables heading into Election Day, no result at the ballot box would be a surprise.

Now that the current COVID-19 outbreak is on its downturn and the economy is beginning to reopen, it’s a good time to analyze Trump’s chances of being reelected in November. There’s still a long way to go until Election Day, but the aftermath of this outbreak is giving us a clearer picture as to how Trump’s response will be perceived in the coming months.

Rhetoric aside, Trump is seen by many to have responded with authority and professionalism to the outbreak once it became a nationwide pandemic. At the same time, many see him to be leading the charge to reopen the economy and revive suffering businesses. This is not the story you get from the mainstream media, but the very fact that Trump was elected president is indicative of how ineffective the media is at shaping people’s opinions — at least the opinions of Trump’s base, his apologists, and his sympathizers.

On the other hand, we will see if Americans feel that Trump is the type of leader best suited for navigating America through a crisis. There is an important distinction to be made between Trump’s actions and his rhetoric. If Americans are still in crisis mode come Election Day, Trump’s divisive and truculent nature may not prove to be as appealing as it was when he was campaigning against a repugnant candidate in Hillary Clinton, even if he’s perceived to have responded well to the virus.

Luckily for Trump, even though Biden is considered to be a much more likable politician than Clinton, he’s also showing signs of dementia. Consequently, it’s difficult to predict how Trump will fare against Biden compared to Clinton. On the one hand, Trump eked out Rust Belt victories against an unpopular candidate who spent little time in that area. However, for all her faults, Clinton was a competent, well-spoken candidate, whereas Biden is neither of those things. Still, Biden is considerably popular in the Rust Belt, and it wouldn’t take much for those results to be reversed, even if Trump gets a higher percentage of the nationwide vote as a result of his incumbency.

However, Trump’s status as an incumbent may put all of these concerns to bed, as incumbents typically have a considerable advantage unless they run the country into the ground. Enthusiasm in Trump’s base was sky-high four years ago, as he was a candidate that defied all odds and broke all established norms. He also dismissed the smarmy, righteous social justice warriors that Clinton proudly supported. COVID-19 had quelled this enthusiasm and put Trump’s advantage as an incumbent in doubt, but, predictably, the Left has just reinvigorated it.

The Left's woke-ness has done nothing to advance its social causes and everything to rile up Trump’s base. The ongoing riots fronted by Black Lives Matter are no different. Trump now has the opportunity to denounce his opposition’s entire platform, which is what garnered him widespread appeal and enabled his ascendency in 2016.

Robert Dimuro

Posted on June 7, 2020 17:30

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Source: FOX News
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