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Elections, Elections. Will Anything Change?

Coen Van Wyk

Posted on August 26, 2022 14:56

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As Angola goes to the polls, the fallout from the Kenyan elections continue. The loser challenged the outcome and is awaiting a court decision. How does that change anything?

With most votes counted in the 24 August National elections, the ruling MPLA seems set to retain a solid majority. A win was never really in doubt, with all the levers of power in the hands of the ruling party. The MPLA, during the struggle against Portuguese colonizers and later in a ten year civil war against other independence movements and later against the South African military, enjoyed Soviet and Cuban support. The then rival freedom movement, UNITA, enjoyed South African and limited USA support, but has since the death of iconic leader Jonas Savimbi almost disappeared from sight. During the recent elections UNITA was back with renewed leadership and a re-invigorated agenda. 

Observers, even from the regional economic development group SADC, were limited. Some observers feared violence in the aftermath, should manipulation of the results seem obvious. But by 25 August, with 86% of the ballots counted, the ruling party was ahead with a 52% majority. UNITA held back from commenting, wanting to tabulate their own results from publically available election data. 

The results will provide a measure of UNITA's ability to mobilize the unemployed and marginalized youth largely left out of the oil industry boom. Indications are that UNITA managed to grow its share of the electorate from 13% in 2019 to 22%. 

These elections would indicate to what extent the youth (60% of the population is under 25) see democracy as a way to change. Already UNITA's strong pro-western stance seems to have broken the Russian stranglehold on Angolan foreign politics, with President Joao Lourenco recently signing up to a regional trade agreement with the European Union. 

In Kenya, the extremely close results of the recent election will depend on the courts for a decision. The announcement that William Ruto had won with 50.5% of the vote, while his rival, Raila Odinga, had garnered 48.8% was soon questioned, also by members of the Electoral Commission. 

Odinga protested several points, notably the actions of the Electoral Commissioner to announce the results without the agreement of a majority of the Commissioners, claims that the electronic voting system may have been hacked, and discrepancies in the figures, notably the voter turnout. His challenge now goes to the Supreme Court, which must rule within 14 days. 

Whatever the results, these elections were considered by many local and foreign observers to have been the most transparent ever, with the results posted on line as they became available. Observers from neighboring countries acclaimed the organization of the elections as an example. 

Whatever the outcome of these two elections, these elections were milestones on the road to democracy in Africa. No longer are elections seen as a Western process to be gone through in order to qualify for foreign loans. An emerging young population, aware of the dramatic economic challenges that await them, are participating and changing the political landscape. 

 

Coen Van Wyk

Posted on August 26, 2022 14:56

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Source: Al Jazeera

Election commission said the ruling MPLA party had a strong lead over the opposition in the country's election.

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