The Latest

THE LATEST

THE LATEST THINKING

THE LATEST THINKING

The opinions of THE LATEST’s guest contributors are their own.

Beware of Biden: He Could Easily Be Elected President

Robert Dimuro

Posted on August 14, 2020 23:39

2 users

Biden has a better chance of defeating Trump than Clinton ever did.

There are many factors that are shaping Trump's reelection chances, including his perceived handling of the pandemic, the state of the economy, protests about racial injustice, mail-in ballots, voter turnout, etc. However, perhaps the most influential factor heading into November is Biden himself.

At first glance, Biden appears to be doddering, with no chance of convincing enough voters that he's fit to be President. Upon further reflection, he has a better chance of defeating Trump than Clinton ever did.

Although the media will break down the upcoming election in a million ways with all kinds of metrics, there are actually only two factors to consider: whether or not Biden is viewed favorably enough compared to Trump to put him over the top and whether or not the disruption of this pandemic will allow Biden to remain in the shadows from now until Election Day.

Besides the polling data that clearly demonstrated just how unpopular Clinton was, she's known by virtually everyone (outside of Hollywood) as being quintessentially corrupt, rehearsed, and out of touch with everyday Americans. The same data demonstrated how unpopular Trump was as well, albeit for different reasons. However, despite both candidates having been unpopular, the data suggested that Trump received the lion’s share of votes from voters that had an unfavorable view of both Trump and Clinton, who comprised 18% of the electorate. These voters broke for Trump 47% to 30%, suggesting that animosity toward Clinton amplified voter turnout for Trump.

So far, the 2020 race paints a different picture. Compared to Clinton, fewer voters dislike Biden throughout the electorate. This difference is most stark among independents, of whom 31% view Biden unfavorably compared to the 51% that viewed Clinton unfavorably in 2016. It’s important to note that Trump is also better liked this time around; however, based on exit polling from 2016, increased popularity for both candidates may actually be disadvantageous for Trump.

This brings us to the second factor, which is whether or not Biden can remain in the shadows. So far, Biden has benefited from the pandemic in numerous ways. One is that Trump’s ability to hold rallies, capture the spotlight, and attack Biden has been hindered. Another is that Biden hasn’t been forced to make public appearances and speak very often, as it turns out that it’s not so easy to beat a dead horse. As such, the debates this year may be more crucial to the outcome of the election than ever before.

Trump and Republicans need to play their hand and emphasize that Hidin’ Joe Biden is not fit to be President. The more that Trump can get Biden to confront him, the more likely that Biden’s unfavorability rating will increase. In my opinion, this must happen in order for Trump to be reelected — incumbency alone won’t be enough. It remains to be seen whether or not Trump can send Biden into the abyss.

Robert Dimuro

Posted on August 14, 2020 23:39

Comments

comments powered by Disqus
Source: Bay News 9

Joe Biden formally clinches Democratic presidential nomination, setting up election challenge to President Donald Trump

THE LATEST THINKING

Video Site Tour

The Latest
The Latest

Subscribe to THE LATEST Newsletter.

The Latest
The Latest

Share this TLT through...

The Latest