Tanzania is taking tentative steps back toward political normality. The clampdown on political opposition activities and rallies imposed by Covid denier President John Mangafuli are slowly being rolled back by his successor, President Samia Suluhu Hassan. Opposition leader Tundu Lissu, returning from exile, called for a constitutional and political solution for the crises besetting this ethnically diverse nation.

In Mozambique, a newly constituted electoral body has begun testing voting systems and procedures in preparation for municipal elections scheduled for October 11, 2023, in what could be a break from the politics of domination by the incumbent Frelimo government. And the Swiss Head of State is to visit the war-torn Cabo Delgado province in northern Mozambique to investigate how Switzerland and also the United Nations, where Switzerland will assume the Presidency of the Security Council this year, can resolve the hostilities there. 

The discovery of oil and gas, as well as considerable amounts of gemstones for this reason, has led to repeated warnings that exploitation of this wealth may lead to the dispossession of the local population. After years of denying the people of Cabo Delgado their right to political expression and to participate in the riches of their land, Islamist tendencies were able to exploit the grievances and start a violent insurrection that has led to more than a million people, numerous deaths and destruction of property.

On 3 February, Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi met a representative of French energy company Total in Pemba. The French message was that, given the military action by Rwandan and Southern African military forces, the situation would now allow the resumption of Total's exploitation of the oil and gas fields, but that the Mozambican Government must ensure the return of normal public services and life for the people in the region.  

In return, President Nyusi claimed that the time is approaching for talks to take place between his government and the leadership of the insurgent forces. He mentioned that Tanzanian figures behind the insurgency were known, and he admitted that this was a local conflict and not, as has previously been claimed, a proxy war for unidentified foreign forces. This change in tack may bode well for negotiations, but it must be remembered that the current government of Mozambique has been locked into largely fruitless negotiations with the rebel Renamo movement for decades. 

Total also has interest in another project - an ambitious and contentious oil pipeline exporting oil from Uganda through Tanzania. This pipeline, and the exploration, will disturb the ecology of fabled game reserves and ecologically sensitive areas.

Where trading dhows once sailed a strategic buildup of naval competition between India, and China is noted. Russia and China, together with the South African Navy, will soon host joint exercises. 

A distant tropical cyclone is sending its first warning signs.